As hype for this spring’s Titanfall and this fall’s Destiny reaches unprecedented levels for untested IPs, I find myself wondering how their presence will affect what could be known as their “predecessors.”
Titanfall is made by Respawn Entertainment, the company Vince Zampella and Jason West founded when they left Infinity Ward and Activision. They were instrumental in creating Call of Duty: Modern Warfare which turned the series into the blockbuster behemoth it is today. Now, though Infinity Ward still makes COD games (along with two other studios for Activision), the creative minds behind the original are investing everything in Titanfall.
Similarly, Bungie left Microsoft's MSFT +0.03% nest entirely after years of making Halo games, one of the most popular and recognizable series in the world. Their new title is the multiplatform MMO shooter Destiny, while ironically Titanfall is currently an Xbox One (and PC) exclusive. But again, Microsoft is still making Halo games, and will presumably have one out from new studio 343 either this year or next. If they get it done in time, it may even go up against Destiny itself this fall, which would be something to see.
Both Halo and Call of Duty are aging. There have been five fully fledged Halo games to date (more if you count ODST and Wars) and Call of Duty has been on a yearly release schedule for a while now with three Modern Warfares, two Black Ops titles, Ghosts and whatever Sledgehammer will make for Activision this fall.
I think part of the excitement surrounding Titanfall and Destiny are simply that they’re new shooter IPs in an age where fan-favorite franchises have long gone stale. Yes, games like Halo 4 and Ghosts still sell very, very well, but the general consensus seems to be that each series’ glory days are behind them. So, how will Titanfall and Destiny affect either series? Could they prove lethal to either elder brand?
I think Halo is more at risk here, given the fact that Titanfall is an Xbox One exclusive (at least for the time being) and Destiny is being made by Bungie, and looks (and appears to feel) a lot like their older famed series. In that sense, both games are directly competing with Halo, whereas Titanfall is less a threat to Call of Duty because that series is multiplatform, even if it’s the series’ creators behind it. If (most likely when) it expands to all consoles, then Call of Duty might have something to worry about.
Halo still has some aces in its pocket at this point, however. Master Chief and Cortana have become icons on the level of Mario and Peach for Microsoft. I’m still not even sure Destiny even has a main character other than the one the player creates, and it remains to be seen what sort of story the game has. The game’s turn to MMO-type play may turn off some players who want a more traditional multiplayer shooter experience that isn’t quite as Borderlands-ish, and Halo could still outperform it in that regard (provided it reverses some of its more recent changes to multiplayer).
Meanwhile, Call of Duty is still seeing declining sales numbers, but the good news is that even if sales are dropping, they were so high in the first place, every Call of Duty release is still a massive hit no matter what. It’s quite literally a golden goose for Activision, and its yearly release cycle will outproduce both Titanfall and Destiny. Not to say that neither of those series can’t get so popular as to start popping out games on a yearly basis, but if that did happen, it wouldn’t be for quite some time. I think that Call of Duty will essentially turn into Madden, even more so than it is already, and still be around a decade from now. The game has its formula set in stone and only needs relatively small tweaks from year to year. Yes, some customers are getting fed up with such minor changes and a general lack of evolution, but sales would indicate a vast majority don’t care, and will buy the new game regardless. Even in the face of increased competition from these new shooters, I can’t imagine what it would take for Activision to kill Call of Duty altogether.
In short, I think right now there’s absolutely enough space for all four of these shooters to coexist. Yes, the new ones will likely be on the upswing while Halo and COD may see their numbers decline, but both sell so well even dips will leave each hugely profitable for years to come. Someday that may not be true, but that day seems like it’s pretty far away.
I do have one piece of advice for EA, Activision and Microsoft. Don’t stack all these games for release in the fall every year. Titanfall is doing a great service to the industry by releasing in the spring. It seems every year we get only a bare handful of good games released at a time other than the pre-Christmas fall (BioShock Infinite, Portal 2, Red Dead Redemption), and releases need to be spread out far better than they’ve been. I understand that everyone wants to be the hot must-have game for Christmas, but I can’t imagine that a Destiny/Halo/Battlefield/Battlefront/Titanfall/Call of Duty simultaneous release in that window wouldn’t result in some serious cannibalism, even if only a few of those came out at once. They need to follow Titanfall’s lead and keep these similarly-genred releases spread out as much as possible over the course of this next generation.
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