As Congress raced to complete work last week on spending measures that would fund the military in 2015, barely a word was said about the most important technology program in the whole defense budget. In fact, there are probably plenty of legislators who have never even heard of it. It’s called the Ohio Replacement Program, and there is a real possibility that at some point later in the century, it will make the difference between whether our Republic lives or dies.
I wish I was exaggerating, but I’m not. The Ohio Replacement Program was conceived to modernize the sea-based part of the nation’s nuclear force — the only part of that force that is certain to survive if Russia, China or some other major nuclear power launches a surprise attack in, say, 2050. The reason why is that the Navy’s ballistic-missile subs patrol silently beneath the surface of the world’s oceans, where enemies cannot find them; the Air Force’s bombers and silo-based missiles, on the other hand, are in known locations that can be easily targeted.
(Disclosure: Several companies likely to build the Ohio Replacement or provide on-board equipment contribute to my think tank; some are consulting clients.)
Collectively, these three types of long-range nuclear systems are called the nuclear “triad,” and the sole purpose for their existence is to convince potential adversaries that any attempt to launch a nuclear attack against America would be suicidal. But what makes that threat credible is not the number of nuclear weapons America has before an attack occurs; it’s how many survive the attack so they can be used to retaliate against an aggressor. That’s what convinces him not to attack in the first place. Strategists used to call this “the delicate balance of terror,” and it is probably the main reason why Russia and America never fought during the Cold War.
However, the Cold War ended a quarter century ago, and many Americans have stopped thinking about the fact that the U.S. and Russia still have thousands of nuclear warheads aimed at each other — despite Moscow’s best efforts to remind us during the Ukraine crisis (Russia’s strategic rocket forces staged their biggest nuclear exercises in years, showing off just how potent their long-range arsenal remains). With only one in five members of Congress having served in the military and nearly half elected in the 2010 election or later, it’s a safe bet that few legislators are conversant with the requirements of effective nuclear deterrence.
Perhaps that explains why the Ohio Replacement Program — so named because it would replace all 14 of the nation’s Ohio-class ballistic-missile subs — was delayed two years by implementation of the Budget Control Act. The delay was a Navy decision, but one made under duress when Congress imposed spending caps with little thought as to the impact on military readiness or modernization. Now a further delay looms because spending caps slowed development of a nuclear reactor that will power the propulsion system of the future subs. That’s a serious problem, because any further delays in developing an Ohio Replacement would result in numbers dipping below the Navy’s stated requirement for ten operational subs.
An Ohio-class ballistic missile sub returns to base in Georgia after a routine deterrence mission. The vessels must begin retiring in 2027, which means the Navy has barely a decade to design, develop and test a successor. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Rex Nelson/Released)
I should mention that most of the Navy’s subs do not carry nuclear weapons at all. Instead, they are conventionally armed (but nuclear-powered) attack subs that protect the sea lanes, collect intelligence, and perform various other secret missions. The Virginia class of attack subs currently being built at the rate of two per year is the most versatile undersea warship ever designed, and is constantly being improved with new technology. Ballistic-missile subs, on the other hand, aren’t supposed to be versatile. They’re supposed to be as good as possible at doing one thing: hiding beneath the waves until the fateful day when they must launch retaliation against a nuclear aggressor, and then doing so in a tailored and 100% reliable fashion.
Sailors informally refer to ballistic-missile subs as “boomers.” You could say that the Air Force has its bombers and the Navy has its boomers. But when it comes to nuclear deterrence, they aren’t the same. Bombers simply aren’t as survivable in a surprise attack. Which is why half of the warheads in the U.S. nuclear deterrent are carried on subs today, and that number will rise to 70% under pending arms-control agreements. The Russians and Chinese know they can’t target the boomers in a surprise attack and thereby blunt any U.S. retaliation, so they have powerful incentives not to launch. This is what passes for a stable strategic balance when nobody has effective defenses against a large-scale nuclear attack.
As conceived by the Navy, the Ohio Replacement will be a technological marvel. Its nuclear core will power the sub for 40 years without requiring a costly midlife refueling; being able to avoid that complex, multiyear process will enable 12 next -generation boomers to provide the same level of deterrence as 14 Ohio-class subs. Its electric-drive system will eliminate the mechanical reduction gears used on the Ohio class, thereby reducing noise that might be exploited by enemy sonar. Money will be saved by adapting propulsor technology, echo-reducing coatings, and a bow sensor array from the Virginia class. Numerous other innovations will be introduced.
One thing that will not change, at least initially, is the missile that the sub carries. That will be an improved version of the Lockheed Martin LMT +1.68%Trident II D5 missile, a three-stage ballistic missile capable of carrying eight or more independently-targeted nuclear warheads. The D5 is the most reliable long-range ballistic missile in history, having performed 150 successful test launches since it was introduced in 1989. That’s pretty amazing for a weapon that doesn’t even ignite until it is ejected by pressurized gas out of the sub and into the air above the sea. Equipped with 16 such missiles, a single Ohio Replacement sub could hypothetically destroy over 100 targets in an aggressor nation from 4,000 miles away — an overwhelming incentive to avoid threatening America.
It doesn’t take a lot of reflection to see why the Navy considers the Ohio Replacement its top development program. Once it joins the fleet, it will protect America from nuclear attack through 2085. But assuring that happens smoothly requires a continuous education program in Congress, where every cent of the money needed to fund the program must be approved. With defense experts like Daniel Inouye, Buck McKeon, Carl Levin and Eric Cantor now largely gone from the congressional leadership of both parties, it is crucial that the importance of building a next-gen boomer on schedule be explained clearly to new members. The Navy is pretty good at that job, but sometimes it forgets that normal people have not been exposed to the intricacies of deterrence theory.
One issue that may be pivotal to keeping the program on track as the existing fleet of ballistic-missile subs moves towards retirement is the creation of a special fund that protects money for the next-gen boats from other claimants. Navy Secretary Ray Mabus has warned that trying to fund a new boomer out of the Navy’s regular shipbuilding budget would starve the rest of the fleet — or result in unacceptable delays to the sub program. The entire shipbuilding account only amounts to 2-3% of defense spending, so trying to squeeze in an additional class of vessels that cost about $5 billion each at the rate of one per year would be a budget buster. Congressional efforts this year to begin crafting a special fund for the boomer look like a smart move — perhaps the only way to assure a stable strategic balance through the middle of the century.
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