Rumors are still flying about the next great TV technology: Organic Light Emitting Diode.
It's difficult to pry info out of the companies involved, but I figured it was worth putting down what we know, what we think we know, and what we know we don't know, ya know?
OK, go.
Hardware
What we know: OLED is the next generation of TV technology. It has the best performance characteristics of plasma and LCD, with few of the drawbacks of either.
For the specifics, check out my article "What is OLED TV?"
What we don't: LG has confirmed it's using RGBW, or red, green, blue, and white subpixels (as described in the above link). Samsung, at CES, affirmed its fealty to RGB (no white subpixel). What we don't know is what Sony and Panasonic (see below) are going use. Will there be a performance or price difference between the different versions? We don't know.
Which leads to...
Performance
What we know: Wow. OLED is just...wow. Seriously. OLED is way better than the best plasma, and makes the best LCD look like a cell phone screen circa 1998. The trick is being able to turn off individual pixels, for a black that is actually the absence (or near enough to it) of light. Even the best plasmas can't do this; even when the pixel is "off," it's still energized slightly, emitting some light. The closest LCDs come is with local-dimming backlit LEDs, which can only dim large areas, not specific pixels.
So, will this give the best contrast ratio ever? Perhaps. I've seen OLED up close several times now, and it's blown me away each time.
Others I've spoken to have felt the same. Gary "HD Guru" Merson had a chance to look at the LG up close at an unveiling in Monoco. CNET Asia's Philip Wong had a hands-on with the 55EM9600 and came away impressed. And of course, when we all saw it at CES, we gave it our Best of CES award.
If you want to step into the way-back machine, Sony's adorable XEL-1 OLED "TV" got CNET's David Katzmaier to write: "The short story on performance is that the Sony XEL-1...displayed the deepest black levels we've ever seen from a shipping TV."
What we don't: Will it be as bright as LG is claiming (over 100 footlamberts)? The incredible black levels were easily visible on the prototypes. Other factors like image retention and lifespan are all things we'll have to wait to see. As amazing as OLED is, no technology is perfect.
Manufacturers
What we know: LG has announced and shown early samples of its 55-inch 55EM9600. Samsung has announced and shown prototypes of its ES9500. The only other big news is thatSony and Panasonic have announced a partnership to build OLED TVs. Don't expect any models soon; they're looking to start production next year.
What we don't: These are the big names in the TV world right now, though they're not the only names. Given the financial woes of some of the other big Japanese TV makers, I don't expect serious OLED announcements from anyone else anytime soon. CES, maybe?
The real question is China. China makes a lot of LCDs. The conversion from LCD manufacturing to OLED manufacturing isn't trivial, but if you want something done fast and cheap, who does it better than the Chinese? Right now I'd be surprised if any Chinese manufacturer with no track record in the high end of the market comes out with an OLED. In a few years, though, count on it.
Price
What we know: It's going to be expensive. Very expensive. It's important to keep in mind that the first mass-market plasmas were 42 inches, $15,000, and looked terrible. Mind-bogglingly bad. So if OLED looks amazing and comes out at $10,000 (and it seems like it will), I'll say we're lucky. And that's just the first generation. It won't be long before we mortals can afford OLED TVs, and by then they'll look even better.
What we don't: Actual, you know, specifics. It's looking like LG's 55EM9600 will be around $10,000 when it eventually ships. Big Picture Big Sound has an article on how much it mightcost to build OLED. Samsung hasn't announced U.S. pricing, either, but it's likely going to benorth of $9,000.
Shipping
What we know: "This year" is all we're getting. Shipments were supposed to start last month, but the silence has been deafening.
What we don't: Pretty much anything else. I bet we'll see some units from LG this year, but I doubt in any big numbers. Samsung has been even quieter. It has been claiming it'll ship OLED TVs this year, but it has made no further announcements. Next year, though, expect to hear a lot more about LG and Samsung OLED, plus more about Sony/Panasonic (Sonysonic? Panany? Pony? Definitely Pony) models.
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