North Korea’s latest satellite-carrying rocket is sitting on the launch pad, and now reportedly just needs to be fueled. But the last time North Korea tried to send a satellite into orbit, the rocket blew up after 90 seconds and crashed into the sea. Will Pyongyang repeat and succeed this time? Maybe. But don’t hold your breath.
On Wednesday, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported North Korea has assembled all three stages of its latest Unha-3 rocket, ostensibly carrying a Kwangmyongsong-3 weather-monitoring satellite. It now just needs to be fueled, and for the Norks to set up cameras and measuring equipment at the site. Pyongyang has also reportedly notified the International Maritime Organization of the rocket’s intended flight path and schedule – in a standard warning to shipping and airline companies — for the upcoming launch set for the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces are deploying Patriot missiles batteries to Okinawa in case the rocket strays towards Japan. Satellite imagery released by DigitalGlobe in late November also revealed the North Koreans hard at work assembling the new rocket. But according to North Korea, at least, there’s nothing to worry about.
According to statements and flight path coordinates released by Pyongyang, the rocket should take off sometime between Dec. 10 and 22, which is consistent with the length of time between assembly and launch during previous rocket tests. The coordinates show the rocket with an expected course over the Yellow Sea, with the first stage splashing down about 87 miles west of South Korea, similar to its previous April launch. Next, the rocket’s second stage will splash down about 85 miles east of the Philippines, also similar.
This plot, illustrated by the Union of Concerned Scientists, shows the rocket’s expected flight path.
“A safe flight path has been chosen so that parts of the carrier rocket that might fall during the launch process would not affect neighboring countries,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) attempted to reassure the world on Dec. 1. It’ll be the fifth time North Korea has attempted to ostensibly put a satellite in orbit, as Pyongyang claims. None of the previous four attempts have been successful.
“I think it’s too soon to tell about whether they’ve improved their capability,” Victoria Samson, a veteran rocket-and-missile watcher with the Secure World Foundation, tells Danger Room in an email. “However, based on the splash-down zones that Pyongyang submitted to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), this satellite launch is expected to follow pretty much the same flight path as the April attempt, so I’m guessing that they will be testing roughly the same technology this time around.”
It all sounds very familiar. But none of Pyongyang’s rockets have performed, um, well. The last time four times North Korea has tried to send a satellite into orbit since 1998, the rockets either blew up or plunked into the ocean at various stages — none of them making it out of the atmosphere. North Korea’s last rocket exploded after a mere 90 seconds and at a reported cost of $850 million.
Pyongyang embarrassingly admitted the failure, and this time assures us that the new rocket works, they promise. ”Scientists and technicians of the DPRK analyzed the mistakes that were made during the previous April launch and deepened the work of improving the reliability and precision of the satellite and carrier rocket, thereby rounding off the preparations for launch,” stated the KCNA.
Meanwhile, Washington has accused North Korea of using the satellite tests as cover for testing missiles that could be used to deliver a nuclear weapon. On Dec. 1, the State Department called the upcoming launch a “highly provocative act that threatens peace and security in the region” and that “devoting scare resources to the development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles will only further isolate and impoverish North Korea.”
There are also questions surrounding the timing, with theories North Korea may be timing its launch for the election season, thus maximizing global attention. The U.S. held its presidential election in November. South Korea and Japan are both holding elections during the upcoming test’s launch window. And China is in the midst of swapping out its senior party leaders.
“I think it’s easy to read too much into this launch,” Samson writes. “The North Koreans have been trying for years to successfully launch the technology needed for a long-range ballistic missile/satellite launch vehicle (depending on whether you ask the North Koreans or the rest of the world as to what this system is). Certainly, if they can get all three stages working this time around, that would be an improvement from previous efforts and a step forward for their space program.”
It’d also be a stick in the eye to South Korea, which was forced to delay a rocket launch of its own to 2013 — that was supposed to go up in late November. But, Samson cautions, a successful launch wouldn’t mean Pyongyang will have worked out all its rocket problems. For one, North Korea sucks at making rockets. And semi-successful launch won’t necessarily mean they’ll be able to hit the U.S., or deliver much of a payload.
“At the risk of sounding glib, this is rocket science and it is complicated,” says Samson. “Their missile program is based on reverse-engineering old Soviet ballistic missiles; their space program does not have that strong of a foundation to work off of.”
But between Dec. 10 and 22, North Korea will have a chance to try and show us otherwise.
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