After near-record warmth in April, North Texas’ drought might worsen in May

Could the record heat on Good Friday and a very warm Easter translate into 100 degrees on Mother's Day in North Texas? Don't bet on it just yet.

Forecasts for the Sunday holiday call for partly sunny skies, very warm and humid with temperatures approaching 90 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

But it was certainly an unseasonably warm April as attested by the highest temperatures in five years at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. The month ranked No. 5 for high temperatures, No. 6 for average temperatures and No. 8 for highest minimum temperatures.

April - Highest Maximum

Rank		Temperature		Year
1		83.2		2006
2		83.0		1948
3		82.7		1930
4		82.4		1925
5		82.3		2011*
6		82.1		1972
7		81.3		1963
8		81.0		1967
		81.0		1954
10		80.7		1955

April - Highest Average

Rank		Temperature		Year
1		72.2		1925
2		72.0		2006
3		71.1		1967
				1948
				1930
6		70.8		2011*
7		70.7		1954
8		70.4		1963
9		70.1		1972
10		69.9		1955

April - Highest Minimum

Rank		Temperature		Year
1		62.0		1925
2		61.2		1967
3		60.8		2006
4		60.3		1954
5		59.5		1963
				1930
7		59.4		2002
8		59.2		2011*
9		59.1		1948
10		59.0		2001

The outlook for May from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center suggests above-normal temperatures inside the 40 percentile line for most of North Central Texas and the entire South Central Texas region.

Rainfall earlier this week tempered the drought but not enough to dampen the conditions permanently.

As far as precipitation, there is a 33 percent probability of below-normal rainfall (but not a strong signal) for North Central Texas except for the western counties which are inside the 40 percentile line. There is an area of northeast Texas that could possibly have above normal rainfall.

"La Niña conditions are weakly present across the tropical Pacific Ocean, but last winter's event is waning and the direct impact on the U.S. should be minimal in May," wrote forecaster Huug Van Den Dool. "Indirect impacts live on because this winter's event has left a strong imprint in terms of dry soil moisture conditions across the South. These lower boundary conditions over land would cause warmth across the South … when solar radiation becomes more intense, i.e. spring and summer."

"Enhanced chances for above normal temperature are expected across the South, especially in … Texas."

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates continuing moderate drought conditions for Dallas County with the surrounding counties in North Central Texas painted in severe-to-extreme drought. South Central Texas is covered in extreme drought, and East Texas shows extreme-to-exceptional drought. Areas along the Gulf Coast are bathed in moderate-to-severe drought.

"A lot of that has to do with Tropical Storm Hermine back in September, which dumped the heaviest rainfall amounts along the I-35 corridor into the DFW area," Meteorologist Jeff Jamison of KDFW-TV (CBS 11) told NewsWatch Dallas.

"(The April 21) report from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows conditions further deteriorating, with fully 100 percent of Texas now in at least a moderate drought. That hasn't happened for at least 11 years," said a report in the Houston Chronicle.

The Long-Term Palmer Drought Severity Index for April 23 shows that both North Central and South Central Texas need six to nine inches of rainfall, and East Texas lacks more than 15 inches to alleviate the drought conditions.

Meanwhile, the Texas Forest Service of the Texas A&M University System announced outdoor burn bans on April 26 for most of Texas except the portion of North Texas from the Red River counties of Cooke to Red River, south to Ellis County and east to Gregg County, and a few counties in South Central Texas along the Gulf Coast and in the Lower Valley region.

Otherwise, if you are planning on fishing or boating on North Texas area lakes, many have levels that are at or below conservation pool elevation as of April 27.