As Chinese Premier Hu Jintao prepares for today’s state dinner at the White House in his honor, the headlines are filled with questions about his control over China’s rapidly modernizing military. So it falls to Adm. Gary Roughead, the Navy’s top officer, to signal that he’s not worried about Chinese seapower — either with optimism that his Chinese counterparts will be responsible mariners or with unsubtle reminders that they’re not yet as good as his own sailors.
In barely a month, China’s made big strides in military technology, rolling out a stealth jet prototype called the J-20 and reaching what the U.S. Navy calls “initial operating capability” on its DF-21D “carrier killer” anti-ship missile. Much as the new Chinese weaponry has caused anxiety in U.S. defense circles, Roughead signaled that he doesn’t think the Chinese can rapidly develop new weapons systems that can compete with what the U.S. has.
“[A]s you get into higher-end capability, I am not so sure that the rate of acceleration is the same,” Roughead told a Financial Times interviewer. “When you start moving into higher-end capabilities, the incremental improvements are harder, more costly and more complex.” That’s in line with Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly questioning “just how stealthy” the J-20 is during his recent trip to China.
On that trip, though, the Chinese military tested the J-20, apparently without Hu’s knowledge. And that seemed in line with the past two years’ worth of increasing Chinese military assertiveness. It wasn’t even two years ago that the People’s Liberation Army Navy, known as the PLAN, harassed a U.S. spy ship in the South China Sea. But Roughead was far more welcoming than angry with the PLAN in his interview.
Global maritime cooperation? “I would very much like the PLAN to be part of that and in fact they are.” New Chinese subs and satellites? “As we all seek to do… they clearly want to assure that operational space around the mainland and the areas they consider to be vital and important.” Growing Chinese sea power in general? “[C]onsistent historically with the economic rise of powers.” If there’s a message there, it’s that the U.S. Navy isn’t looking for a confrontation.
And if there’s a subtext, it’s that the U.S. would dominate one if the Chinese bring it. The Navy’s top information officer, Vice Adm. Jack Dorsett, said earlier this month that the Chinese haven’t yet knitted together all their sea, air and land fighting forces or integrated them with their new technologies. Roughead let it be known that the U.S. Navy is “experienced in the application and the use of very high-end equipment in operational environments on a daily basis,” and keeps 37 percent of the fleet forward deployed — “I don’t know what percentage I would put on the PLAN that is forward-deployed,” he added.
The carrier-killer missile? Sure, the Chinese will have it fully ready in “the next couple of years,” but can it overcome the “challenges of finding, targeting and then hitting” a maneuvering U.S. Navy ship? What’s more, for all the talk about the PLAN developing an anti-ship missile to cheaply blunt the power of an aircraft carrier, Roughead noted that the Chinese are building their own carrier, which “speaks a little about the value of them.” And just because the PLAN builds a carrier, “[k]nowing how to operate it and being very competent in those operations is something very different,” he said.
Same goes for the new Chinese submarine production. “I would submit that our new Virginia class is the best in the world,” Roughead said, adding that no one should discount the U.S.’ growing skills at anti-submarine warfare.
Gates returned from China without a solid commitment from the People’s Liberation Army to create amilitary-to-military communications channel. That means interviews like Roughead’s are going to be pored over in Beijing for keys to U.S. military intentions. And how Chinese admirals interpret the U.S. Navy chief’s interview — emphasizing the cooperation or the U.S.’ military advantage — will say something about their own.
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