It was sold as a demonstration of Taiwan’s high-tech defenses against a rapidly rising China. ButTuesday’s firing of 19 air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles before an audience of top government officials and reporters might end up having another equally important effect for Taiwan: scoring pity points with China hawks in Washington.
That’s because the test was a flop. Six of the missiles missed their targets. One, a Sparrow air-to-air missile, “cascaded harmlessly into the South China Sea less than 30 seconds after launch,” according to the Associated Press.
“I’m not satisfied with the results,” Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou said.
But failure has its perks. The missiles likely missed because they are, like much of Taiwan’s weaponry, simply old and outdated. So the botched test underscores Taiwan’s perceived need for a fresh supply of U.S.-made weaponry.
Since China and Taiwan split in 1949, the much tinier island nation has seen its support among world powers erode in proportion to the mainland’s growing wealth and influence. The U.S. is obligated by a 1979 law to “provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive nature,” but in recent years Washington has dragged its feet on weapons supplies in order to avoid pissing off the Chinese. China routinely severs ties with the U.S. over arms deals with Taiwan.
In 2001, Washington agreed to sell Taiwan $6 billion in new weapons, including four destroyers, a dozen P-3 patrol planes and eight submarines. So far, only the destroyers — revamped U.S. Navy models from the ’80s — have been delivered. The planes have been stalled until around 2015. The submarines became such a political hot potato that nobody would agree to build them.
The same thing happened in 2006, when Taiwan requested 66 new F-16 fighters to bulk up its aging, shrinking air force. In principle, Washington agreed to the sale. But politics have indefinitely held up the actual transfer.
The botched missile test could help Taiwan make its case for the new fighters. “The Taiwan government may be using this exercise to send a message to the U.S. that its air defense is facing mounting pressure as China continues to develop the new generation of fighter jets,” Wang Kao-cheng, from Taiwan’s Tamkang University, told the AP.
That would be consistent with Beijing’s approach to public relations. In mainland China, military tests and the production of new weapons represent a form of domestic political theater. Parades, weapons tests and military exercise are “an effort to remind domestic audiences of the sophistication of the weaponry of the state,” according to Jeffrey Wasserstrom, in his book China in the 21st Century.
New weapons can also boost China’s prestige on the world stage. This is the main reason the People’s Liberation Army Navy is building two aircraft carriers. The vessels will be visually intimidating but not terribly useful against no fewer than 11 large American carriers. “If we were in a war, I don’t think China’s carriers would last very long,” independent naval analyst Eric Wertheim said.
China’s weapons are meant to make China look stronger than it is. The reverse could be true in Taiwan’s missile test, at least initially. For now, the Taiwanese government might actually be happy to appear weak abroad, in order to speed up delivery of the American weapons it needs in order to appear stronger.
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