Conventional wisdom has long held that Hillary Rodham Clinton,
if she runs for president, would be the clear frontrunner for the
Democratic nomination in 2016. But after a trifecta of scandals
buffeting President Obama – fresh questions about the White House’s veracity on Benghazi, the IRS’s harassment of conservative non-profits and the Justice Department seizure ofAP telephone records – Clinton's close connections with Obama could become politically problematic.
Some Republicans believe that revelations about the Benghazi
operation could lead to unflattering details that cast questions about
Clinton’s stewardship at the State Department. If there was any attempt
to downplay the details of what transpired for political reasons, the
blowback would be serious. But Clinton could have more to lose over the
general tenor of scandal that’s lately suffused this administration. If
the media focus shifts from Obama’s second-term legacy to second-term
scandal, it would cast a cloud over those looking to capitalize on his
coattails.
The last week has been rough for the president. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote Tuesday,
a confident administration now looks “out of touch and unresponsive.”
He warns if the controversies worsen, “many Americans will start to
doubt his administration’s veracity and values.” The conservative
narrative of the Obama
White House as hyper-politicized and thin-skinned about its opposition
is starting to resemble reality. If that image begins to stick, it will
be hard to shake off.
Clinton knows all too well about
how scandal can intensify the public's desire for change, both when she
ran her first presidential race against Obama in 2008, and at the
conclusion of her husband’s second term. Public dissatisfaction with
George W. Bush made Democratic party
voters looking for someone disconnected from the decision to go to war
with Iraq. Enter Obama. Nearly a decade earlier, then-Vice President Al
Gore awkwardly tried to distance himself from his former boss in the
wake of Bill Clinton’s sex scandal, despite voters’ widespread approval of Clinton’s policies.
Until this week, it seemed obvious that the next Democratic
presidential nominee would be running on Obama’s legacy. He's maintained
his popularity with the liberal base. His job approval numbers, despite
troubles passing his agenda through Congress, have been decent,
hovering around the 50 percent mark. He appeared content blaming
legislative gridlock on a GOP-controlled House in the run-up to the 2014
midterms, even repeating that argument at a fundraiser in the midst of
the feeding frenzy Monday. Immigration reform could become law, though
it will be hard to summon the necessary goodwill with Republicans given
what’s transpired.The Clintons expected that voters would welcome the equivalent of a third Obama term. She accepted the job as Secretary of State after a grueling campaign against Obama, recognizing the benefits to her long-term interests. Bill Clinton tirelessly campaigned for Obama in 2012, probably expecting some chits to be repaid down the road. Before leaving, she sat down with the president on “60 Minutes” receiving largely softball questions about her performance at State. Her own approval ratings, at least before the Benghazi hearings, were near all-time highs.
But by being so closely tied to Obama, she could reap some blowback if any of these scandals metastasize. If they do, Democratic voters may be looking for a fresher face, someone who has spent less time in Washington.
To be sure, if she ran, Clinton
would enter a 2016 race with numerous advantages. There’s a sparse bench
of national Democratic prospects behind her, with Maryland Gov. Martin
O’Malley, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and New York Gov. Anthony
Cuomo among those waiting in the wings. Vice President Joe Biden,
whose approval ratings have always trailed the president’s, would enter
a race with similar baggage if Obama’s popularity turned for the
worse.
Outside the White House, many Democrats have been frustrated that the
president’s political operation hasn’t spent enough time building up
the party during his time in office, focused on his brand over the
broader needs of Democrats. Obama-allied groups, like Organizing for
Action, have taken up many of the responsibilities the Democratic
National Committee normally handles. The historic nature of Obama’s
presidency hasn’t brought a new wave of black Democratic officeholders
to Congress, as Politico’s Jonathan Martin detailed, despite his coalition’s dependence on them.Clinton, by virtue of her service to Obama, was uniquely-positioned to capitalize on those ties. After a brutal 2008 campaign, she spent her time in Foggy Bottom cultivating an apolitical image – aided by some aggressive political handlers – while benefiting from the president’s broad popularity. The unusual void of top-tier Democratic talent made a presidential run all the more enticing.
But with scandal lurking, all
those advantages could end up being for naught. Clinton knows something
about being embarrassed by a president. Her political hopes may be
disappointed by another. VIDEO
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